Abstract

Objectives: To study the trends in growth of area, production and productivity of pulses over a period of time and to forecast the values for these variables.

Methodology: Adopted to study the first objective is to calculate the compound growth rates with the help of exponential growth model. For the second objective univariate time series analysis based on Box-Jenkins (BJ) approach which is popularly known as ARIMA process has been adopted to forecast the values for area, production and productivity of pulses. The present analysis is based on the annual time series data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) for the period 1966-67 to 2015-16.

Findings: The growth rate analysis indicated that during the study period there is positive and significant growth in area, production and productivity of pulses but relative growth in area is lower compared to that of production and yield. The empirical analysis based on ARIMA indicated that the specifications (i) AR (1), AR (2), MA (1) and MA (2) (ii) AR (1), AR (10), MA (1) and MA (12) (iii) AR (12) and MA (1) were best fitted models for forecasting area, production and productivity of total pulses in India respectively. The model adequacy criteria like correlogram of residuals, ischolar_main mean square errors, mean absolute percentage error, Theil’s inequality coefficient, normality and heteroskedasticity assumptions of residuals validated the results. Based on the selected ARIMA specifications projections for next five years starting from 2016-17 onwards have been made. The forecast results show the increasing trend in production and productivity of pulses but the area under pulse crops shows the growth of near stagnancy during forecast period.

Application: Inferences drawn from the results are firstly these projections help the policy makers and farmers in their decision making. Secondly, concerted efforts are required for effective implementation of government programmes to enhance the area under pulse crops which are influenced by multiplicity of factors and risks, to reduce the widening gap between supply of and demand for pulses in the future.

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Abstract

Objectives: To find out the reasons behind the extensive employment of inter-state migrant workers in the selected regions and sectors of Kerala, from the employers’ perspective.

Methods: A survey of 432 employers or owners of the enterprises who employed inter-state migrant workers was conducted with the help of pre-tested interview schedule. The data was collected from employers/owners belonging to three sectors in the three districts of Kerala. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select the sample. Descriptive statistics like tabulation analysis, percentages and non-parametric tests were used for data analysis.

Findings: The employers in selected sectors faced some labour related issues, mainly labour shortage, higher wages and union problems by native workers. To overcome these problems employer started sourcing and employing migrant workers. Native workers were not interested to take up unskilled and menial jobs in Kerala due to social stigma. Therefore severe labour shortage accompanied with more benefits and less cost/demerits from the employment of migrant workers and consequent preference for migrants in order to meet the demand in some segments of the labour market led to the extensive employment of migrant workers in Kerala.

Application: The study conveys the problems of employers/owners of enterprises and reasons for employing migrant workers in the present labour situation in Kerala. Due to the strong interference of labour unions along with several other reasons, Kerala doesn’t have a supportive environment for industrial growth. Hence, this study may help policy makers to take appropriate measures to encourage entrepreneurs and their business.

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